Repères 10/12/06 - Foresight 2020: economic, industry and corporate trends
Foresight 2020: economic, industry and corporate
trends
Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), 2006
"Executive Summary :
A lot can happen in 15 years. At the start of the 1990s, China was largely a
planned economy, and the Soviet Union still existed. Few people had heard of
the Internet and e-mail seemed closer to science fiction than reality. The next
15 years will bring further massive changes to the shape of the world economy,
to the landscape of major industries and to the workings of the company. The
major findings of the Foresight 2020 survey are summarised overleaf, but the
principal trends identified in this report include the following:
1 - Globalisation. It’s too early to talk of Asia’s century, but there will be
a redistribution of economic power. Emerging markets, and China and India in
particular, will take a greater slice of the world economy. Non-OECD markets
will account for a higher share of revenue growth between now and 2020 than
OECD economies. Labour-intensive production processes will continue to shift to
lower-cost economies, which will still enjoy a massive wage advantage over
developed markets. The pace of globalisation will be arguably the critical
determinant of the rate of world economic growth.
2 - Demographics. Population shifts will have a significant impact on
economies, companies and customers. The favourable demographic profile of the
US will help to spur growth; ageing populations in Europe will inhibit it.
Industries will target more products and services at ageing populations, from
investment advice to low-cost, functional cars. Workforces in more mature
markets will become older and more female.
3 - Atomisation. Globalisation and networking technologies will enable firms to
use the world as their supply base for talent and materials. Processes, firms,
customers and supply chains will fragment as companies expand overseas, as work
flows to where it is best done and as information digitises. As a result,
effective collaboration will become more important. The boundaries between
different functions, organisations and even industries will blur. Data formats
and technologies will standardise.
4 - Personalisation. Price and quality will matter as much as ever, but
customers in developed and developing markets will place more emphasis on
personalisation. Products and services will be customisable, leading firms to
design products in a modular fashion and, in the case of manufacturers,
assemble them in response to specific customer orders. Customers and suppliers
will be treated in different ways, depending on their personal preferences and
their importance to the business.
5 - Knowledge management. Running an efficient organisation is no easy task but
it is unlikely on its own to offer lasting competitive advantage. Products are
too easily commoditised; automation of simple processes is increasingly
widespread. Instead, the focus of management attention will be on the areas of
the business, from innovation to customer service, where personal chemistry or
creative insight matter more than rules and processes. Improving the
productivity of knowledge workers through technology, training and
organisational change will be the major boardroom challenge of the next 15
years..."
