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dimanche 24 février 2008

Repères 24/02/08 - La nouvelle idée des néocons sur l'Iran : Négocier pour permettre, enfin, la guerre !

Repères 24/02/08 - La nouvelle idée des néocons sur l'Iran : Négocier pour permettre, enfin, la guerre !

Attack Iran, With Words
By REUEL MARC GERECHT, New York Times 20/02/08

"...The Bush administration should advocate direct, unconditional talks between Washington and Tehran. Strategically, politically and morally, such meetings will help us think more clearly. Foreign-policy hawks ought to see such discussions as essential preparation for possible military strikes against clerical Iran’s nuclear facilities...

...If the mullahs don’t want to negotiate, fine: making the offer is something that must be checked off before the next president could unleash the Air Force and the Navy. To make the threat of force against clerical Iran again credible, there needs to be a consensus among far more Democrats and Republicans that a nuclear-armed Iran is intolerable. If the White House tried more energetically to find a diplomatic solution to the nuclear threat, if it demonstrated that it had reached out to Iranian “pragmatists” and “moderates,” and that again no one responded, then the military option would likely become convincing to more Americans...

...If the Bush administration were to use this sort of diplomatic jujitsu on the ruling clerics, it could convulse their world. No, this is absolutely no guarantee that Tehran will stop, or even suspend, uranium enrichment. But a new approach would certainly put the United States on offense and Iran on defense. We would, at least, have the unquestioned moral and political high ground. And from there, it would be a lot easier for the next administration, if it must, to stop militarily the mullahs’ quest for the bomb."

Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former Central Intelligence Agency officer, is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

 

lundi 11 février 2008

Repères 11/02/08 - McCain néocon ?

Repères 11/02/08 - McCain néocon ?

Neo-Cons and Bolton Flock to McCain Standard
Jim Lobe, LobeLog February 10th, 2008

"As I noted in my last post, the withdrawal of both Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson would spur neo-conservatives and their closest aggressive nationalist friends, like John Bolton, to rally behind John McCain as their preferred candidate. Of course, now that Romney himself has withdrawn, there hasn’t really much of an alternative, notwithstanding Mike Huckabee’s ardent Christian Zionism. In any event, Jennifer Rubin, a political correspondent at Commentary’s Contentions blog (which has become much more active, if predictable, under John Podhoretz’s editorship), has a good rundown with useful links of the latest endorsements and commentary...

...Does this mean John McCain is a neo-con or would necessarily pursue neo-conservative/aggressive nationalist positions if he became president? No. Unlike Bush, he has his own strong views on U.S. foreign policy, not to mention far more foreign-policy experience — and hence confidence — in those views. He also has advisers who tend to the realist category. But it does mean is that, like Bush, there would almost certainly be a major power struggle between the two tendencies if he got to the White House. The best relatively recent article on McCain’s foreign-policy evolution, however, suggests that the hawks would definitely enjoy the upper hand. Read John Judis’ October, 2006, article in The New Republic entitled “Neo-McCain.”"

 

McCain is Now the Neo-Con Candidate
Jim Lobe, LobeLog February 2nd, 2008

"With the elimination of both Rudy Giuliani last week and Fred Thompson the week before, neo-conservatives who were not already in his camp will be rushing to support Sen. John McCain. Of course, McCain was the early favorite of Bill Kristol and the Weekly Standard back in 2000, and the latter’s most recent coverage, particularly by Dick Cheney favorite Stephen Hayes (he of the famous “Case Closed” leak that purported to prove beyond any doubt that Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden were long-standing friends and collaborators) has made clear that they are solidly in McCain’s camp..."

 

jeudi 13 décembre 2007

Repères 13/12/07 - La bombe tombe sur la tête des néoconservateurs

Repères 13/12/07 - La bombe tombe sur la tête des néoconservateurs

Les plus durs des néoconservateurs américains, comme Michael Ledeen, Norman Podhoretz, John Bolton, Kenneth R. TimmermanBret Stephens, William Kristol, Patrick Clawson, n'en finissent pas de se déchainer contre le NIE (National Intelligence Estimate) qui affirme que les iraniens ont abandonné en 2003 leur programme nucléaire militaire.

Dans ou entre leurs lignes, on peut cependant lire les lamentations de ceux qui savent que le coup porté contre eux est décisif.

Ils savent maintenant, comme Dick Cheney ou Robert Kagan avec son retentissant "Time to Talk to Iran", que la partie est perdue pour eux et qu'une guerre contre l'Iran semble dorénavant impossible à lancer avant que George W. Bush ne quitte le pouvoir.

 

vendredi 11 mai 2007

Repères 11/05/07 - Sarkozy and the World

Repères 11/05/07 - Sarkozy and the World

Sarkozy and the World
Council on Foreign Relations May 7, 2007

"...In the United States, at least, the optimism that Sarkozy somehow will reinvigorate French foreign policy and vastly improve ties with Washington appears to be based on pundits’ estimates of his character rather than any concrete policy changes in the offing..."


Lire également des opinions néoconservatrices (!) :

The Sarkozy Revolution: Five Recommendations for the New French President
by Nile Gardiner, Ph.D. Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, May 9, 2007

"The victory of Nicolas Sarkozy in the French presidential election presents the best hope for French political reform since the publication of Alexis De Tocqueville's L'Ancien Régime in 1856. Sarkozy, the son of a Hungarian immigrant, has vowed to transform France from a backward-looking, outdated, rapidly declining country into a modern, globally focused nation. In almost messianic terms, he has pledged a break with the past and a new era for the French people.

Arrayed against him, however, is a powerful coalition of vested interests, from the communist-dominated trade unions to the elites who dominate the civil service, not least the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Quai d'Orsay. In addition, the new French president must contend with long-term civil unrest in the immigrant-dominated suburbs of France's major cities, where mobs of largely Muslim youths are already rioting against the new regime. Out of all European Union countries, France is by far the most resistant to change, with the deepest entrenched vestiges of socialism and hostility to the free market.

If Sarkozy is serious about transforming France, he will have to lead a Herculean effort. On the domestic front, he must confront the biggest elephants in the room: the 35-hour workweek and job protection laws that have contributed to a 20 percent unemployment rate among young people. In Europe, Mr. Sarkozy must show that he is serious about reforming the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the largest protectionist racket in the world, and bring an end to French bullying within the EU. On the world stage, France must become serious about confronting the biggest threats of the day, from the rise of a nuclear-armed Iran to global terrorism. It is in the U.S. interest to have a France that is firmly anchored to the transatlantic alliance and looks to Washington and London, not just Brussels, to advance its foreign policy agenda..."


Au Revoir
by Laurent Murawiec, From the May 8, 2007 National Review Online

"Good news for the French, good news for us: Nicolas Sarkozy’s impressive victory in this weekend’s French presidential election sounds the death knell of key components of French political exceptionalism.

GAULLISM AT HOME…
First, the Gaullist exception in both the domestic field and in international affairs has finally been done away with..."

"…AND ABROAD
In international affairs, de Gaulle repeatedly broke ranks with Atlantic solidarity; he tried to sunder NATO and flirted with Moscow. De Gaulle foolishly France, with him at it head, as the leader of an international “third way” in which the “non-aligned” and the Soviet bloc would join him. The Islamic world, Latin America, and Asia would heed his anti-American call. De Gaulle’s successors kept up that tradition, though with partial exceptions: President Pompidou improved relations with Richard Nixon somewhat; Socialist president Mitterrand supported Reagan’s deployment of the “euro-missiles” (but furiously opposed missile defense).

Jacques Chirac turned out to be the most virulent hater of America, ready to go to almost any length to harm the U.S.

Sarkozy’s very first statement upon being elected pointedly emphasized a strong alliance with and friendliness toward the United States. This is an enormous change: For the first time since the strongly Atlantic-oriented Fourth Republic, Paris will not be anti-American. This does not mean that Sarkozy’s France will be “aligned” with, or a mere appendix of, American diplomacy — in his speech, Sarkozy first underlined that he was “a good European” and favorable to a stronger Europe. Rather, it means that Sarkozy’s France will stop trying to berate, harass, and scoff at the United States at every opportunity; that Sarkozy’s France will stop trying to lead a worldwide anti-American coalition, as was the case under the bumbling but tenaciously noxious stewardship of Jacques Chirac. The professional America-loathers at the French foreign ministry, the Quai d’Orsay, will have to watch their step. Israel will be able to count on a more level playing field and less Islamophilia. Washington can do business with Nicolas Sarkozy, whereas Chirac only wanted to do injury to America. The European Union can again envision a center-right French-German leadership that is not intent on pitting the EU against America..."

 

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