Repères 30/01/08 - Geoengineering, la prochaine arme des fous ?
Battlefield Earth
By Jamais Cascio, Foreign Policy January 2008
"...Geoengineering involves humans making intentional, large-scale
modifications to the Earth’s geophysical systems in order to change the
environment. These can include sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide in the
oceans, changing the reflectivity of the Earth’s surface, and pumping particles
into the stratosphere to block a fraction of incoming sunlight. Many of these
proposals mimic natural events, so we know that—in principle—they can work,
although there is insufficient understanding of their potential side effects.
Unsurprisingly, geoengineering is highly controversial, and even proponents
view it as a “Hail Mary” pass, to be considered only after all other options
have failed.
But geoengineering presents more than just an environmental question. It
also presents a geopolitical dilemma. With processes of this magnitude and
degree of uncertainty, countries would inevitably argue over control, costs,
and liability for mistakes. More troubling, however, is the possibility that
states may decide to use geoengineering efforts and technologies as weapons.
Two factors make this a danger we dismiss at our peril: the unequal impact of
climate changes, and the ability of small states and even nonstate actors to
attempt geoengineering...
...It wouldn’t be the first time states looked at the environment as a
weapon. In the early 1970s, the Pentagon’s Project Popeye attempted to use
cloud seeding to increase the strength of monsoons and bog down the Ho Chi Minh
Trail. In 1996, a group of Air Force and Army officers working with the Air
Force 2025 program produced a document titled “Weather as a Force Multiplier:
Owning the Weather in 2025” (it never went anywhere). The Soviet Union
reputedly had similar projects underway. But although the idea of a
geoengineering arms race may superficially parallel this line of thinking, it’s
actually a very different concept. Unlike “weather warfare,” geoengineering
would be subtle and long term, more a strategic project than a tactical weapon;
moreover, unlike weather control, we know it can work, since we’ve been
unintentionally changing the climate for decades.
The offensive use of geoengineering could take a variety of forms.
Overproductive algae blooms can actually sterilize large stretches of ocean
over time, effectively destroying fisheries and local ecosystems. Sulfur
dioxide carries health risks when it cycles out of the stratosphere. One
proposal would pull cooler water from the deep oceans to the surface in an
explicit attempt to shift the trajectories of hurricanes. Some actors might
even deploy counter-geoengineering projects to slow or alter the effects of
other efforts..."
