Repères 30/08/06 - La Turquie à la croisée des chemins stratégiques
Turkey key to Western energy, security
By Federico Bordonaro, ISN Security Watch 28/08/06
"European observers and decision-makers are closely watching ongoing political developments in Turkey and their implications for Ankara's foreign policy. Foremost among these concerns is the appointment in late July of General Yasar Buyukanit as the new military chief of staff, not to mention upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections..."
"...Turkish and international analysts alike point out that Buyukanit's political and cultural orientation is not exactly as pro-European and pro-Western as that of his predecessor. More importantly, some fear that the new chief of staff will promote a tougher policy towards Kurdish activists and will be less likely to make concessions to the EU on the Cyprus issue.
Should Ankara's position on these two issues become more rigid, a deterioration in European-Turkish relations may occur, further complicating the already intricate matter of Turkey's integration into the EU.
An even more worrisome possibility would be a stronger anti-Western turn that could signal the beginning of Turkish rapprochement with Iran and a strengthening of Russo-Turkish relations at the expense of Ankara's traditional pro-US and pro-EU orientation..."
"...Some recent developments in northern Iraq also have fuelled the anxiety of those in the West who hold a pessimistic view of Buyukanit's appointment. In Iraqi Kurdistan, the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) - labeled a “terrorist organization” by the US, Britain and the EU - has raised the tempo of its armed operations, according to Turkish officials. As a result, last May, both Ankara and Teheran launched military operations on the border to counter the PKK's activities.
This event has caused some significant concern in Washington. Turkish military intervention in northern Iraq would disrupt the delicate regional balance and plunge the area into chaos, complicating Washington's already difficult position in Iraq. Moreover, it could further embolden Iran, the US’ main rival in the Middle East, in the event of anti-Kurdish strategic cooperation developing between Ankara and Teheran..."
"...in recent years, Russia's relationship with Turkey has featured a complex combination of political competition (mainly in Central Asia) and economic cooperation. Generally speaking, Moscow's relations with Ankara have become friendlier, and Russia has even been courting Turkey to engage in more extensive collaboration in the energy field..."
