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vendredi 21 mars 2008

Repères 21/03/08 - Présidence française : Sarkozy stresse déjà les Européens

Repères 21/03/08 - Présidence française : Sarkozy stresse déjà les Européens

EU anxiety as Sarkozy prepares to take helm
IHT March 19, 2008

"...The dinner concluded, Sarkozy convened a midnight press conference at which he claimed that his plan for Mediterranean cooperation was the third big French initiative to be adopted by the EU in a year.

Observing Sarkozy basking in the limelight, oozing adrenaline, one could be forgiven for thinking that he was running the EU.

In three months, that impression will become reality. In July, Paris takes over the bloc's six-month rotating presidency from the long-suffering Slovenians. And that prospect is beginning to cause anxiety in Brussels...

...The holder of the EU presidency is expected to run the agenda in an impartial manner, to consult widely, flatter colleagues and broker deals behind the scenes even if it means giving others the credit.

Judged on his current performance, Sarkozy faces a steep learning curve...

...The issue that prompted the latest clash was Sarkozy's plan for a Union for the Mediterranean, originally conceived as a body linking the EU's southern states to the non-EU Mediterranean countries. As such it threatened to exclude Germany - the biggest source of EU funds. In the eyes of Chancellor Angela Merkel, it might have led to the fragmentation of the EU, posing a fundamental danger to German interests.

The dispute over the Mediterranean was eventually patched up with a compromise announced at last week's summit meeting. But such rifts are difficult to avoid when the leaders' personal styles contrast so starkly. Merkel, a scientist by training, is always well briefed and rarely opens her mouth without having thought through all the implications; Sarkozy frequently shoots from the hip...

...But if Germany is alarmed, one senior European diplomat said, small countries are petrified. For them, Sarkozy personifies a dangerous combination: "a mercurial nature with bulldozer-like tendencies when he has an idea in his brain."...

...Sarkozy's energy and single-mindedness do produce results, his Mediterranean initiative being a good example. Though it was watered down after German objections, Paris won the right to create new structures. Some in Berlin believe that Sarkozy was taught a lesson: He had to compromise.

But he may have drawn the opposite conclusion: Even if he didn't get 100 percent of what he wanted, Sarkozy managed to bounce the Germans into a plan they hated.

Another looming difficulty is the concentration of policy making in the person of the president. This is a familiar pattern in the French system. The Foreign Ministry, the prime minister's office and the presidential staff often have different views, and it is only when the president takes a stand that the policy is settled.

But with Sarkozy it is even more difficult for French officials - let alone anyone else - to predict how a policy is going to turn out...

..."Across a range of policies," the European diplomat said, there is "a lot of talk about French ambition and very little clarity about French objectives." "

 

jeudi 13 mars 2008

La phrase du jour 13/03/08 - Victoria Nuland

La phrase du jour 13/03/08 - Victoria Nuland

"l’Europe doit pouvoir “agir de manière indépendante”, en préservant son “autonomie” de décision"

Victoria Nuland, ambassadrice des USA à l’OTAN, citée (sans rire) par le journal Le Monde

 

Washington reconnaît l' "autonomie" et l' "indépendance" de la défense européenne
Le Monde 28/02/08

"Est-on à quelques mois d'un "printemps" transatlantique ? Alors qu'à Paris un processus diplomatique se poursuit pour permettre à la France de reprendre "toute sa place" au sein de l'Alliance atlantique, Washington vient d'adresser un message très positif au gouvernement français pour lui indiquer que les Etats-Unis ont abandonné leurs préventions s'agissant de la montée en puissance de la défense européenne.

Or c'est là la principale exigence formulée par le président Nicolas Sarkozy pour envisager un retour de la France dans la structure militaire intégrée de l'OTAN, que Paris a quittée en mars 1966.

Ce message a pris la forme d'une intervention de l'ambassadeur des Etats-Unis auprès de l'Alliance, Victoria Nuland, qui s'est exprimée à Paris et à Londres, vendredi 22 et lundi 25 février. En substance, les Etats-Unis reconnaissent que l'Europe doit pouvoir "agir de manière indépendante", en préservant son "autonomie" de décision.

Ce ton tranche nettement avec le discours antérieur des responsables américains qui insistaient systématiquement sur le risque d'une "duplication" entre les moyens existants de l'OTAN et les ambitions de la politique européenne de sécurité et de défense (PESD).

"C'est un signal fort de la part de Washington, celui que nous attendions. C'est un écho positif aux propos que le président Sarkozy a tenus à Washington. Une telle ouverture rend obsolète la contestation du besoin d'autonomie opérationnelle de l'Union européenne (UE)", observe un responsable diplomatique français..."

 

lundi 10 mars 2008

Repères 10/03/08 - Ce qu'ils en disent : Le projet d'Union pour la Méditerranée

Repères 10/03/08 - Ce qu'ils en disent : Le projet d'Union pour la Méditerranée

Making sense of Sarkozy’s Union for the Mediterranean
Michael Emerson, The Centre for European Policy Studies 7 March 2008 

"President Sarkozy’s proposed Union for the Mediterranean (or UMed) has so far been poorly conceived and, to say the least, awkwardly presented politically. However this does not mean that nothing good can come of it. The Barcelona process and its confusing combination with the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) have been neither a disaster nor a brilliant success. There is a case for streamlining a single European Mediterranean policy, rationalising and properly integrating Barcelona, the ENP and some new elements of the regional initiative that France is proposing..."

 

dimanche 9 mars 2008

Repères 09/03/08 - Europe et Géostratégie du changement climatique

Repères 09/03/08 - Europe et Géostratégie du changement climatique

Climate Change and International Security
The Irish Times March 8, 2008

"A REPORT on security challenges to the EU will bluntly warn the union's summit next week that Europe could face conflict with Russia over access to energy reserves in the Arctic and a dangerous surge in immigration due to the impact of climate change.

And the report warns that the EU must address the reality that fragile states in Africa, Asia and the Middle East will be much worse off due to severe food and water shortages, which are likely to spark regional conflicts and humanitarian disasters.

The warnings are contained in the report, Climate Change and International Security, from the EU's foreign policy chief Javier Solana and the commission to the EU leaders' meeting next week in Brussels.

It argues that climate change threatens to "overburden states and regions which are already fragile and conflict prone" and urges a radical rethink of EU policies to better protect its own political and security interests.

The paper warns that competition over water and food supplies will fuel existing conflicts in Africa and intensify political instability in the Middle East where two-thirds of the Arab world rely on water sources outside their borders.

Sea level rises, changes in the monsoon rains and a decrease in melt water from the Himalayas threaten three billion people in south Asia. In North Africa and the Sahel, drought, water scarcity and land overuse could lead to the loss of 75 per cent of arable, rain-fed land. By 2050 five million people in the Nile Delta could be affected by rising sea levels while climate change is already having a major impact on the conflict in and around Darfur, says the report. It warns that by 2020 "there will be millions of 'environmental' migrants".

Europe is also already facing challenges to its security and economic interests in the Arctic due to the rapid melting of the polar ice caps.

Increased accessibility to the enormous hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic is transforming the geo-strategic dynamics of the region with consequences for Europe's security interests, the report says..."

 

EU warned of climate-induced polar security threat

"BRUSSELS, March 6 (Reuters) - European Union leaders will receive a stark warning next week of potential conflict with Russia over energy resources at the North Pole as global warning melts the ice cap and aggravates international security threats.

A report to the leaders by EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and the executive European Commission describes climate change as "a threat multiplier", which will exacerbate many existing tensions and heighten instability.

"A further dimension of competition for energy resources lies in potential conflict over resources in Polar regions which will become exploitable as a consequence of global warming," the eight-page report obtained by Reuters said.

"The resulting new strategic interests are illustrated by the recent planting of the Russian flag under the North Pole."

A Russian scientific expedition planted a flag on the ocean floor last summer, staking a symbolic claim to the resource-rich region. President Vladimir Putin decorated the three-man team with "Hero of Russia" medals.

The report said the EU needed to address the growing debate over Arctic territorial claims and access to new trade routes which challenged its ability to secure its trade and resource interests and may put pressure on relations with "key partners".

It suggested the 27-nation bloc develop a specific Arctic policy "based on the evolving geo-strategy of the Arctic region, taking into account ... access to resources and the opening of new trade routes"..."

 

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