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mardi 17 juin 2008

Repères 17/06/08 - Iran : Le Pentagone craint l'escalade et les représailles iraniennes

Repères 17/06/08 - Iran : Le Pentagone craint l'escalade et les représailles iraniennes

"... L'Iran a plus d'options et de meilleures options pour frapper en retour les Etats-Unis que les Etats-Unis n'en ont pour frapper l'Iran..."

"...Iran had more and better options for hitting back at the United States than the United States had for hitting Iran..."

 


US/IRAN: Fearing Escalation, Pentagon Fought Cheney Plan
Analysis by Gareth Porter, IPS Jun 6

"WASHINGTON, Jun 6 (IPS) - Pentagon officials firmly opposed a proposal by Vice President Dick Cheney last summer for airstrikes against Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) bases by insisting that the administration would have to make clear decisions about how far the United States would go in escalating the conflict with Iran, according to a former George W. Bush administration official.

J. Scott Carpenter, who was then deputy assistant secretary of state in the State Department's Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, recalled in an interview that senior Defence Department (DoD) officials and the Joint Chiefs used the escalation issue as the main argument against the Cheney proposal.

McClatchy newspapers reported last August that Cheney had proposal several weeks earlier "launching airstrikes at suspected training camps in Iran", citing two officials involved in Iran policy.

According to Carpenter, who is now at the Washington Institute on Near East Policy, a strongly pro-Israel think tank, Pentagon officials argued that no decision should be made about the limited airstrike on Iran without a thorough discussion of the sequence of events that would follow an Iranian retaliation for such an attack. Carpenter said the DoD officials insisted that the Bush administration had to make "a policy decision about how far the administration would go -- what would happen after the Iranians would go after our folks."

The question of escalation posed by DoD officials involved not only the potential of the Mahdi Army in Iraq to attack, Carpenter said, but possible responses by Hezbollah and by Iran itself across the Middle East...

...At least some DoD and military officials suggested that Iran had more and better options for hitting back at the United States than the United States had for hitting Iran, according to one former Bush administration insider..."

 

lundi 26 mai 2008

Repères 26/05/08 - Les USA perdent pied au Moyen-Orient

Repères 26/05/08 - Les USA perdent pied au Moyen-Orient

Les faits se bousculent au Moyen-Orient pour conforter notre analyse du 19/05/08 : Les discours surréalistes de George W. Bush n'y changeront rien, les Etats-Unis semblent avoir perdu toute influence et toute capacité d'agir sur le cours des évènements.

 

Mideast negotiations now bypassing Washington
McClatchy Newspapers May 23, 2008

"In a week of dramatic developments in the Middle East, the most dramatic development of all may have been the fact that the United States, long considered the region's indispensable player, was missing in action.

As its closest allies cut deals with their adversaries this week over the Bush administration's opposition, Washington was largely reduced to watching...

...Over the past few days:

- The Lebanese government, which has received $1.3 billion and political support from the Bush administration, compromised with the Hezbollah-led opposition, giving the Iranian-backed Shiite Muslim group, which Washington considers a terrorist organization, a greater role in running the country.

- Israel ignored U.S. objections and entered indirect peace talks with Syria through Turkey, another longtime U.S. ally.

- The U.S.-backed Iraqi government of Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki deployed military forces to Baghdad's Sadr City slum under an agreement that specifically excluded U.S. troops.

- Saudi Arabia, a crucial oil supplier and long a major buyer of U.S. weapons, is quietly closing what could be a multibillion-dollar arms deal with Russia, according to a U.S. defense official.

State Department officials scoffed at the notion that the United States has been relegated to the sidelines.

Private analysts and some foreign diplomats, however, said that leaders in the Middle East, both friend and foe, are now calculating with an eye to the era after President Bush — who visited Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt this month with little visible effect..."

 

samedi 17 mai 2008

Repères 17/05/08 - Pentagone vs Maison Blanche

Repères 17/05/08 - Pentagone vs Maison Blanche

Le fait est assez remarquable pour être mis en avant : Au moment même où George W. Bush, s'adressant à la Knesset, condamnait toute idée de négociation avec "les terroristes et les radicaux", citant l'Iran comme "premier sponsor mondial de la terreur", son Secrétaire à la Défense, Robert M. Gates, déclarait de son côté qu'il était nécessaire de "parler" avec l'Iran.

Il ne s'agit pas d'une coincidence, le Pentagone étant parfaitement informé par avance du discours de George W. Bush. Robert M. Gates a clairement signifié aux Israéliens que le Pentagone, et l'armée américaine, avaient aujourd'hui des vues très différentes de celles du Président.

 

Extraits :

"The United States should construct a combination of incentives and pressure to engage Iran, and may have missed earlier opportunities to begin a useful dialogue with Tehran..."

"...We need to figure out a way to develop some leverage . . . and then sit down and talk with them..."

"Les Etats-Unis doivent construire une combinaison d'encouragements et de pressions sur l'Iran, et nous avons peut-être manqué hier les opportunités pour entamer un dialogue utile avec Téhéran..."

"...Nous avons besoin d'imaginer un chemin pour développer quelques leviers... et nous asseoir et parler avec eux..."

Robert M. Gates, Secrétaire à la Défense des USA

 

"...Some seem to believe that we should negotiate with the terrorists and radicals, as if some ingenious argument will persuade them they have been wrong all along. We have heard this foolish delusion before. As Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939..."

"...Permitting the world's leading sponsor of terror to possess the world's deadliest weapons would be an unforgivable betrayal for future generations..."


"...Certains semblent penser que nous devrions négocier avec les terroristes et les radicaux, comme si quelque argument astucieux pouvait les persuader qu’ils s’étaient trompés depuis longtemps. Nous avons déjà entendu proférer cette croyance stupide par le passé. Lorsque les blindés Nazis parcouraient la Pologne en 1939..."

"...Permettre au premier sponsor mondial de la terreur de posséder les armes les plus mortelles au monde serait une impardonnable trahison pour les générations futures..."

George W. Bush, Président des USA
 


Gates: U.S. Should Engage Iran With Incentives, Pressure
Washington Post May 15, 2008

"The United States should construct a combination of incentives and pressure to engage Iran, and may have missed earlier opportunities to begin a useful dialogue with Tehran, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said yesterday.

"We need to figure out a way to develop some leverage . . . and then sit down and talk with them," Gates said. "If there is going to be a discussion, then they need something, too. We can't go to a discussion and be completely the demander, with them not feeling that they need anything from us."..."

 

President Bush Addresses Members of the Knesset
White House, Office of the Press Secretary May 15, 2008

"...Some seem to believe that we should negotiate with the terrorists and radicals, as if some ingenious argument will persuade them they have been wrong all along. We have heard this foolish delusion before. As Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939..."

 

dimanche 11 mai 2008

La phrase du jour 11/05/08 - Chuck Hagel

La phrase du jour 11/05/08 -  Chuck Hagel

"The world does not want an America that imposes, that dictates, that lectures, that preaches, that invades, nor occupies..."

"Le monde ne veut pas d'une Amérique qui impose, qui dictate, qui sermonne, qui prèche, qui envahit, qui occupe..."

Chuck Hagel, sénateur républicain du Nebraska, modéré, anti-guerre, n'a jamais eu peur de s'opposer à l'administration Bush 


A Conversation on National Security with Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE)
Center for American Progress May 8, 2008

“The world does not want an America that imposes, that dictates, that lectures, that preaches, that invades, nor occupies. I think the world does want a clear-thinking America that will lead with a consensus of purpose. That’s what we’ve done most of the time since World War II … and we can do that again,” Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) told a packed crowd at the Center for American Progress this morning. Hagel, who will retire from the Senate next year at the end of his second term, discussed his new book, America: Our Next Chapter, and the tough choices that America will have to make in the coming years as it defines and redefines its place in the world.

“Reintroducing America to the world will be as important as any one thing this next president has to do,” Hagel asserted. In order to do this, he said, “we need to reverse the optics,” concentrating less on how we see the world, and more on how the world sees us.

Hagel described the current moment as “one of the most transformational times in the history of man,” citing the fall of the Berlin Wall and the attacks of September 11 as two events that have redefined the way we see the world. The great challenges that we face today such as energy, security, and the economy, are interconnected, Hagel argued, adding that “each year we become more dependent; we’re dependent on the world.” The United States must therefore begin to address these issues by “developing a consensus of governance of this country, in the world.”

Hagel called on the United States to renew international institutions and diplomacy, returning to a model built after World War II, when “we defined our relationships not by our differences, but by our common interests.” The United Nations, in particular, Hagel said, “will be more relevant today, in the next 25 years, than it has ever been,” because it is the one full “world institution where people can bring issues.”

If there’s one thing that Iraq has taught us, Hagel emphasized, quoting General David Petraeus, it’s that, “There is no military solution in Iraq.” What’s more, he said, “military power alone will not achieve the great objectives that are going to be required to meet these 21st-century challenges.” Rather, we need to “employ all instruments of a great nation’s power,” he argued, and that will “require a 21st-century framework of thinking, of policy making, of structuring.”

These new frameworks will have to be global, and they will have to focus on making a better life for all people, Hagel explained, saying, “When people have higher standards of living, when they’re making progress, when there is more hope, when there is more opportunity, that means more stability, that means more security.”

“We’ll eventually have to make some tough choices,” Hagel said, but “I don’t think that any of these problems are so big, so overpowering, that we can’t deal with them.” His optimism stems from a belief that “each generation of Americans has left the country better, has left it stronger, has left the world stronger” and if we “keep asking tough questions and … challenging our society to do better,” we can make progress.

 

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