Repères 16/03/08 - Dr Conrad, l'historien qui avait prévu ce qui s'est passé en Irak

The Army Monograph that Predicted Just About Everything that's Happened in Iraq
History News Network 10/03/08

"...Dr. Conrad Crane is sometimes referred to as the historian who predicted what would happen in Iraq. In point of fact a lot of historians warned that we were headed into a mess. But Crane, Director of the U. S. Army Military History Institute at Carlisle Barracks, PA, bravely issued his warning from his perch at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. His monograph, co-authored with Dr. Terrill, was published in February 2003, a month before we went to war. Excerpts appear below...

...Rebuilding Iraq will require a considerable commitment of American resources, but the longer U.S. presence is maintained, the more likely violent resistance will develop...

...To be successful, an occupation such as that contemplated after any hostilities in Iraq requires much detailed interagency planning, many forces, multi-year military commitment, and a national commitment to nation-building.

Recent American experiences with post-conflict operations have generally featured poor planning, problems with relevant military force structure, and difficulties with a handover from military to civilian responsibility.

To conduct their share of the essential tasks that must be accomplished to reconstruct an Iraqi state, military forces will be severely taxed in military police, civil affairs, engineer, and transportation units, in addition to possible severe security difficulties.

The administration of an Iraqi occupation will be complicated by deep religious, ethnic, and tribal differences which dominate Iraqi society.

U.S. forces may have to manage and adjudicate conflicts among Iraqis that they can barely comprehend.

An exit strategy will require the establishment of political stability, which will be difficult to achieve given Iraq’s fragmented population, weak political institutions, and propensity for rule by violence..."


Voir :

Conrad C. Crane, W. Andrew Terrill, February 2003