Repères 09/03/08 - Europe et Géostratégie du changement climatique

Climate Change and International Security
The Irish Times March 8, 2008

"A REPORT on security challenges to the EU will bluntly warn the union's summit next week that Europe could face conflict with Russia over access to energy reserves in the Arctic and a dangerous surge in immigration due to the impact of climate change.

And the report warns that the EU must address the reality that fragile states in Africa, Asia and the Middle East will be much worse off due to severe food and water shortages, which are likely to spark regional conflicts and humanitarian disasters.

The warnings are contained in the report, Climate Change and International Security, from the EU's foreign policy chief Javier Solana and the commission to the EU leaders' meeting next week in Brussels.

It argues that climate change threatens to "overburden states and regions which are already fragile and conflict prone" and urges a radical rethink of EU policies to better protect its own political and security interests.

The paper warns that competition over water and food supplies will fuel existing conflicts in Africa and intensify political instability in the Middle East where two-thirds of the Arab world rely on water sources outside their borders.

Sea level rises, changes in the monsoon rains and a decrease in melt water from the Himalayas threaten three billion people in south Asia. In North Africa and the Sahel, drought, water scarcity and land overuse could lead to the loss of 75 per cent of arable, rain-fed land. By 2050 five million people in the Nile Delta could be affected by rising sea levels while climate change is already having a major impact on the conflict in and around Darfur, says the report. It warns that by 2020 "there will be millions of 'environmental' migrants".

Europe is also already facing challenges to its security and economic interests in the Arctic due to the rapid melting of the polar ice caps.

Increased accessibility to the enormous hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic is transforming the geo-strategic dynamics of the region with consequences for Europe's security interests, the report says..."

 

EU warned of climate-induced polar security threat

"BRUSSELS, March 6 (Reuters) - European Union leaders will receive a stark warning next week of potential conflict with Russia over energy resources at the North Pole as global warning melts the ice cap and aggravates international security threats.

A report to the leaders by EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and the executive European Commission describes climate change as "a threat multiplier", which will exacerbate many existing tensions and heighten instability.

"A further dimension of competition for energy resources lies in potential conflict over resources in Polar regions which will become exploitable as a consequence of global warming," the eight-page report obtained by Reuters said.

"The resulting new strategic interests are illustrated by the recent planting of the Russian flag under the North Pole."

A Russian scientific expedition planted a flag on the ocean floor last summer, staking a symbolic claim to the resource-rich region. President Vladimir Putin decorated the three-man team with "Hero of Russia" medals.

The report said the EU needed to address the growing debate over Arctic territorial claims and access to new trade routes which challenged its ability to secure its trade and resource interests and may put pressure on relations with "key partners".

It suggested the 27-nation bloc develop a specific Arctic policy "based on the evolving geo-strategy of the Arctic region, taking into account ... access to resources and the opening of new trade routes"..."