Repères 04/01/08 - Recession américaine ?

"Some of the country’s most famous economists – including Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman, as well as Lawrence Summers, former Treasury secretary, and Martin Feldstein, president of the National Bureau of Economic Research - put the odds of recession at close to 50-50.

This is striking, because economists say it is almost impossible to forecast recessions and, in the last quarter of a century, there have been only two brief and shallow periods of negative US growth. “We have had an awful lot of bad news,” says Mr Feldstein. “It is not a sure thing we are going to have a recession, but nor do I have great confidence that we are going to escape.” "

Danger ahead: The prospect of recession again confronts America
Financial Times 02/01/08